A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
