Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
